Triglyceride-glucose index trajectories and the incident risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese adults with normal weight: the China-PAR project
Authors' conclusion
Among the Chinese population with normal weight, those with a high-increasing TyG index trajectory may face a higher risk of T2DM compared with those with a low-increasing trajectory. Persistently lower TyG levels are associated with a reduced risk of T2DM in the normal-weight population.
Study context
- Population
- Chinese adults with normal weight who participated in at least 3 surveys of the China-PAR Project
- Participants
- 21,373 adults
- Exposure
- Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index trajectories vs low-increasing trajectory
- Outcome
- Incident T2D
- Follow-up
- Mean 12.9 years
Methodological detailstrajectory analysis (latent mixture modeling), adjusted logistic regression
- Trajectory analysis (latent mixture modeling)
- Adjusted logistic regression
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Each group vs low-increasingOdds ratio (95% CI)
Moderate-increasing
3.00(2.41–3.76)
Moderate high-increasing
8.19(6.43–10.51)
High-U shape
8.42(5.27–13.17)
High-increasing
17.39(12.53–24.17)
- Participants who developed T2D
- 1215
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Sex-specific trajectories and T2D risk
- Similar to those in the total population
Sensitivity and subgroup analyses
- Associations remained robust
Original publication
Triglyceride-glucose index trajectories and the incident risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese adults with normal weight: the China-PAR project. Int J Obes (Lond). Published 5 June 2026. doi:10.
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