The global burden of disease attributable to high body mass index in 204 countries and territories: Findings from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2035
Authors' conclusion
High BMIs significantly contribute to the global disease burden. The projected rise in deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI by 2035 highlights the critical need to address the impact of obesity on public health. Our study provides policymakers with up-to-date and comprehensive information.
Study context
- Population
- Global, regional and national populations, GBD 2019 data, 1990–2019; deaths and DALYs attributable to high body mass index (BMI)GBD 2019 data
- Primary endpoint
- Age- and sex-specific deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2019; forecast 2020-2035
Methodological detailsglobal, regional and national estimates, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model
- Global, regional and national estimates
- ARIMA forecasting model
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
1990 to 2019; 2019
- Increase in deaths attributable to high BMI, men, 1990–2019
- 148%
- Increase in DALYs attributable to high BMI, men, 1990–2019
- 155.86%
- Increase in deaths attributable to high BMI, women, 1990–2019
- 111.67%
- Increase in DALYs attributable to high BMI, women, 1990–2019
- 121.78%
- Share of all-cause deaths attributable to high BMI, 2019
- 8.52% (95% UI 0.05, 0.12)
- Share of global DALYs attributable to high BMI, 2019
- 5.89% (95% UI 0.04, 0.08)
Further findings
Age and sex pattern · 2019
- Highest death rates in men aged 65-69 and women aged 75-79
- Highest DALY rates in age group 60-64 for both sexes
Highest age-standardized rates by region and country · 2019
- Death rate, Central Asia (95% UI 107.72, 223.58), per 100 000
- 163.15
- DALY rate, Oceania (95% UI 2835.66, 6902.6), per 100 000
- 4643.33
- Death rate, Fiji (95% UI 213.77, 444.96), per 100 000
- 319.08
- DALY rate, Kiribati (95% UI 6266.55, 14159.2), per 100 000
- 10 000.58
- Highest age-standardized death and DALY rates in the middle-high and the middle socio-demographic index quintile
Projected age-standardized rates attributable to high BMI · 2020 to 2035
- Death rate per 100 000, projected rise
- 62.79 to 64.31
- DALY rate per 100 000, projected rise
- 1946 to 2099.54
- ARIMA model projection; increase in both sexes
Original publication
The global burden of disease attributable to high body mass index in 204 countries and territories: Findings from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2035. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 3 July 2024. doi:10.
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