Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors' conclusion
Both overweight and obesity increased substantially in every world region between 1990 and 2021, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in overweight and obesity have failed a generation of children and adolescents. Beyond 2021, overweight during childhood and adolescence is forecast to stabilise due to further increases in the population who have obesity. Increases in obesity are expected to continue for all populations in all world regions. Because substantial change is forecasted to occur between 2022 and 2030, immediate actions are needed to address this public health crisis.
Study context
- Population
- Children and adolescents aged 5–24 years in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 20501,321 data sources · 180 countries
- Comparison
- 5-14 years vs 15-24 years
- Outcome
- Age-standardised prevalence of overweight and of obesity (separately), by age group and sex
- Follow-up
- 1990–2021; forecasts 2022–2050
Methodological detailsGlobal Burden of Disease Study 2021, spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, generalised ensemble forecasting assuming continuation of current trends, age-standardised estimates
- Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression
- Generalised ensemble forecasting assuming continuation of current trends
- Age-standardised estimates
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
5-14 years
93.1 million
UI 89.6–96.6
15-24 years
80.6 million
UI 78.2–83.3
Further findings
| Outcome | 5-14 years | 15-24 years |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast obesity prevalence · 2050Forecast | 15.6% (UI 12.7–17.2) · n = 186 million [141-221] | 14.2% (UI 11.4–15.7) · n = 175 million [136-203] |
Forecast obesity prevalence · 2050
- Overweight (not obesity) prevalence forecast to stabilise; increase in obesity forecast greater than 1990–2021, substantial between 2022 and 2030
Males aged 5-14 years: obesity vs overweight · 2050
- Obesity
- 16.5% [13.3-18.3]
- Overweight
- 12.9% [12.2-13.6]
- Females 5-24 years and males 15-24 years: overweight will remain more prevalent than obesity
- Forecast
Original publication
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