Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
An erratum to this article was published (Lancet, 23 Aug 2025 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
No country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged ≥25 years in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050; data from 1350 unique sources (self-reported and measured anthropometric data)1,350 unique sources
- Comparison
- Males vs Females
- Outcome
- Prevalence of overweight and obesity in adults, historical trends 1990–2021 and forecasts to 2050
Methodological detailsGlobal Burden of Disease Study 2021, spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, reference scenario assuming continuation of historical trends, adjustment for self-report bias
- Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression
- Reference scenario assuming continuation of historical trends
- Adjustment for self-report bias
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Males
1.00 billion
95% UI 0.989–1.01
Females
1.11 billion
UI 1.10–1.12
- Forecast total adults with overweight and obesity by 2050, over half of likely global adult population (reference scenario)
- 3.80 billion (95% UI 3.39-4.04)
Further findings
| Outcome | Males | Females |
|---|---|---|
| Increase in global obesity prevalence vs 1990 · 2021 | 155.1% (UI 149.8–160.3) | 104.9% (95% UI 100.9–108.8) |
Adults with overweight and obesity by country · 2021
- China (largest)
- 402 million [397-407]
- India
- 180 million [167-194]
- USA
- 172 million [169-174]
Highest age-standardised prevalence and most rapid rise
- Highest prevalence in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, many countries >80% in adults
- Most rapid rise in north Africa and the Middle East: age-standardised prevalence more than tripled in males and more than doubled in females
Forecasts to 2050
- Increase in number in sub-Saharan Africa super-region
- 254.8% (234.4-269.5)
- Nigeria adults with overweight and obesity (fourth-largest population)
- 141 million (121-162)
- Reference scenario assuming continuation of historical trends
Original publication
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