How Low Could Semaglutide Prices Fall? An Analysis of Production Cost and Implications for Global Access
Authors' conclusion
Patent expiry may substantially expand access at lower prices, but device costs, secondary patents, and health system constraints could limit equitable uptake without coordinated policy action.
Study context
- Population
- Countries where generic semaglutide access may become possible after 2026 patent expiry; obesity and T2D burden from World Bank, World Obesity and Diabetes Atlas data
- Outcome
- Potential launch prices of generic semaglutide following patent expiry and global obesity and T2D burden in countries where generic access may become possible
Methodological detailscost-plus pricing, patent landscape analysis
- Cost-plus pricing
- Patent landscape analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Patent expiry, disease burden and estimated generic production costs · 2026
- Share of global obesity in 12 countries with 2026 patent expiry
- 47%
- Share of global T2D in 12 countries with 2026 patent expiry
- 49%
- Additional countries with no patent filings identified
- 150
- Countries where generic injectable semaglutide could be available by end of 2026
- 162
- Share of global T2D in those 162 countries
- 69%
- Share of clinical obesity in those 162 countries
- 84%
- Estimated generic injectable cost per person-year
- $28 to $140
- Estimated oral formulation cost per person-year
- $186 to $380
Original publication
How Low Could Semaglutide Prices Fall? An Analysis of Production Cost and Implications for Global Access. Obesity (Silver Spring). Published 12 July 2026. doi:10.
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