Variations in the Risk of New‐Onset Diabetes Following COVID ‐19 Infection Across Body Mass Index, Deprivation, Ethnicity and Geographic Regions: Population‐Based Cohort Study in 42 Million People in England
Authors' conclusion
In this cohort, COVID-19 was associated with a modest, short-term increase in T2D risk and showed no meaningful association with T1D. Established metabolic, demographic and socioeconomic factors-including age, BMI, deprivation and ethnicity-were more strongly associated with T2D incidence than COVID-19 exposure.
Study context
- Population
- Adults (≥18 years) registered with a general practice in England, 1 January 2020 to 28 May 2024, NHS England Secure Data Environment (CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT)matched cohort
- Participants
- 12,859,545 vs 29,221,285
- Exposure
- COVID-19 diagnosis vs no COVID-19
- Exposedn = 12,859,545
- Unexposedn = 29,221,285reference
- Outcome
- New-onset T2D and T1D after COVID-19 diagnosis, by sex and across age, BMI, deprivation, ethnicity and region
- Follow-up
- Median 2.4 years
Methodological detailsmatched on age, sex, region and deprivation, linked electronic health records, flexible parametric survival models
- Matched on age, sex, region and deprivation
- Linked electronic health records
- Flexible parametric survival models
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
T2D incidence, e.g. 70-year-old men with BMI 35 kg/m²
Exposed
44.2 per 1000 person-years
CI 43.6–44.8
Unexposed
44.2 per 1000 person-years
CI 43.7–44.8
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
T2D incidence, 70-year-old women with BMI 35 kg/m²
T2D by BMI, deprivation and ethnicity · 1 year
- More T2D cases per 1000 person-years with BMI 35 vs 30 kg/m² in unexposed 70-year-old men
- 22
- Higher deprivation and Asian ethnicity more strongly associated with T2D risk than COVID-19 exposure
T1D
- No evidence of an association between COVID-19 and T1D across all analyses
Original publication
Variations in the Risk of New‐Onset Diabetes Following COVID ‐19 Infection Across Body Mass Index, Deprivation, Ethnicity and Geographic Regions: Population‐Based Cohort Study in 42 Million People in England. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 10 May 2026. doi:10.
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