Incidence of diabetes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in England and the implications of COVID-19 vaccination: a retrospective cohort study of 16 million people
Authors' conclusion
Elevated incidence of type 2 diabetes after COVID-19 is greater, and persists for longer, in people who were hospitalised with COVID-19 than in those who were not, and is markedly less apparent in people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19. Testing for type 2 diabetes after severe COVID-19 and the promotion of vaccination are important tools in addressing this public health problem.
Study context
- Population
- People aged 18–110 years in England, registered with a GP ≥6 months, no previous COVID-19 diagnosis; pre-vaccination (Jan 1, 2020–Dec 14, 2021), vaccinated and unvaccinated (June 1–Dec 14, 2021) cohortspre-vaccination cohort
- Participants
- 16,669,943 people
- Exposure
- Diabetes incidence after COVID-19 diagnosis vs before or in the absence of COVID-19
- Outcome
- Incident type 2, type 1, gestational and non-specific diabetes
- Follow-up
- Up to 102 weeks after diagnosis
Methodological detailslinked electronic health records, pre-vaccination, vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts
- Linked electronic health records
- Pre-vaccination, vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
T2D incidence, pre-vaccination cohort
After COVID-19 vs No COVID-19Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI)
Weeks 1-4
4.30(4.06–4.55)
Weeks 53-102
1.24(1.14–1.35)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | aHR (CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| T2D incidence by vaccination status · weeks 1-4After COVID-19vs No COVID-19Unvaccinated (n 3 076 953) | 8.76 (7.49–10.25) | |
| T2D incidence by vaccination status · weeks 1-4After COVID-19vs No COVID-19Vaccinated (n 12 279 669) | 1.66 (1.50–1.84) | |
| T2D incidence by COVID-19 severity, pre-vaccination cohortAfter COVID-19vs No COVID-19Hospitalised, weeks 1-4 | 28.3 (26.2–30.5) | |
| T2D incidence by COVID-19 severity, pre-vaccination cohortAfter COVID-19vs No COVID-19Hospitalised, weeks 53-102 | 2.04 (1.72–2.42) | |
| T2D incidence by COVID-19 severity, pre-vaccination cohortAfter COVID-19vs No COVID-19Not hospitalised, weeks 1-4 | 1.95 (1.78–2.13) | |
| T2D incidence by COVID-19 severity, pre-vaccination cohortAfter COVID-19vs No COVID-19Not hospitalised, weeks 53-102 | 1.11 (1.01–1.22) | |
| 0.050.21520Adjusted hazard ratio (log scale) |
Persistence of T2D · 4 months after COVID-19
- T2D persisted in those diagnosed
- around 60%
T1D incidence
- Patterns similar to T2D, although excess incidence did not persist beyond 1 year after COVID-19 diagnosis
Original publication
Incidence of diabetes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in England and the implications of COVID-19 vaccination: a retrospective cohort study of 16 million people. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. Published August 2024. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →