Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the U.S. Population Aged <20 Years Through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study
Authors' conclusion
The number of youths with diabetes in the U.S. is likely to substantially increase in future decades, which emphasizes the need for prevention to attenuate this trend.
Study context
- Population
- U.S. youth aged <20 years; SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study data, 2002–2017
- Comparison
- Constant incidence vs continued increasing incidence trends
- Outcome
- Projected prevalence and number of youths with T1D and T2D, and trends in racial and ethnic disparities
- Follow-up
- Through 2060
Methodological detailsmathematical model, scenario projections
- Mathematical model
- Scenario projections
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Number of youths with diabetes · 2060
| Group | Value | T1D | T2D | Relative increase T1D | Relative increase T2D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constant incidence | 239,000 (95% CI 209,000–282,000) | 191,000 | 48,000 | 3% (95% CI −9%; 21%) | 69% (95% CI 43%; 109%) |
| Increasing incidence | 526,000 (95% CI 335,000–893,000) | 306,000 | 220,000 | 65% (95% CI 12%; 158%) | 673% (95% CI 362%; 1,341%) |
Value
Constant incidence239,000 (95% CI 209,000–282,000)
Increasing incidence526,000 (95% CI 335,000–893,000)
T1D
Constant incidence191,000
Increasing incidence306,000
T2D
Constant incidence48,000
Increasing incidence220,000
Relative increase T1D
Constant incidence3% (95% CI −9%; 21%)
Increasing incidence65% (95% CI 12%; 158%)
Relative increase T2D
Constant incidence69% (95% CI 43%; 109%)
Increasing incidence673% (95% CI 362%; 1,341%)
- Number of youths with diabetes in 2017
- 213,000 (95% CI 209,000; 218,000) (T1D 185,000, T2D 28,000)
Further findings
- In both scenarios, substantial widening of racial and ethnic disparities in T2D prevalence expected, highest prevalence among non-Hispanic Black youth
Original publication
Projections of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Burden in the U.S. Population Aged <20 Years Through 2060: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study. Diabetes Care. Published 29 December 2022. doi:10.
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