Global burden of type 1 diabetes in adults aged 40–64: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2036
Authors' conclusion
The burden of T1DM in middle-aged adults is increasing, particularly in the 40-44 age group, with notable gender-specific disparities and higher mortality in low- and lower-middle-SDI countries. This highlights the urgent need for targeted prevention and intervention strategies.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged 40–64 years with T1D, GBD 2021 data, 1990–2021
- Outcome
- Burden of T1D (age-standardised prevalence, mortality and DALY rates)
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021; projections 2022 to 2036
Methodological detailsJoinpoint regression, Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort projection model
- Joinpoint regression
- Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort projection model
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR) of T1D · 1990 to 2021
Age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR) increased from 274 to 346 per 100,000
AAPC 0.75 %
Age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) declined
AAPC −1.09 %
Age-standardised DALY rate (ASDR) declined
AAPC −0.34 %
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Projected ASPR · 2036
- Continued increase in ASPR projected
- 437 per 100,000
Regional differences by SDI
- Higher mortality in low- and lower-middle SDI regions
- ASDR rose slightly in high-SDI countries
Risk factors
- High fasting plasma glucose remains the leading risk factor
Original publication
Global burden of type 1 diabetes in adults aged 40–64: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2036. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 1 December 2025. doi:10.
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