Prediction of childhood overweight and obesity at age 10–11: findings from the Studying Lifecourse Obesity PrEdictors and the Born in Bradford cohorts
Authors' conclusion
This prediction modelling can be applied at 4-5 years to identify the risk for childhood overweight at 10-11 years, with slightly improved prediction with the inclusion of maternal data. These prediction models demonstrate that routinely collected data can be used to target early preventive interventions to reduce the prevalence of childhood obesity.
Study context
- Population
- Children with linked maternal pregnancy, birth and child health records, Hampshire, UK, 2003–2008; external validation in Born in Bradford cohort
- Participants
- 6,566 children
- Comparison
- Model with body mass index (BMI) at 4–5 years and child sex vs model additionally incorporating maternal early-pregnancy predictors
- Outcome
- Overweight and obesity (age- and sex-adjusted BMI ≥ 91st centile) at 10-11 years
- Follow-up
- 10-11 years
Methodological detailscohort, anonymised linked cohort, external validation in Born in Bradford birth cohort, logistic regression with multivariable fractional polynomials
- Cohort
- Anonymised linked cohort
- External validation in Born in Bradford birth cohort
- Logistic regression with multivariable fractional polynomials
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Prediction of overweight/obesity at 10-11 years (AUC)
| Test or model | AUC development | AUC external validation |
|---|---|---|
| BMI + sex model | 0.82 | 0.83 |
| BMI + sex + maternal model | 0.84 | 0.85 |
AUC development
BMI + sex model0.82
BMI + sex + maternal model0.84
AUC external validation
BMI + sex model0.83
BMI + sex + maternal model0.85
Further findings
Prevalence of overweight
- Overweight at 4-5 years
- 14.6%
- Overweight at 10-11 years
- 26.1%
- Overweight at both timepoints
- 10.8%
Original publication
Prediction of childhood overweight and obesity at age 10–11: findings from the Studying Lifecourse Obesity PrEdictors and the Born in Bradford cohorts. Int J Obes (Lond). Published 4 August 2023. doi:10.
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