Natural History of Type 2 Diabetes in Indians: Time to Progression
Authors' conclusion
Individuals reside in normoglycemia for 35-40 years; however, progression from prediabetes to diabetes is rapid.
Study context
- Population
- Diabetes-free participants older than 20 years, Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia longitudinal study; glycemic states per ADA criteriadiabetes-free
- Participants
- 2,714 participants
- Exposure
- Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) vs isolated impaired fasting glucose (iIFG)
- IGTn = 341
- iIFGn = 641reference
- Outcome
- Annual transition probabilities and sojourn time through glycemic states
Methodological detailslongitudinal, Markov models
- Longitudinal
- Markov models
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Annual transition to diabetes
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Mean sojourn time, normoglycemia ↔ iIFG → diabetes model
- Sojourn time in normoglycemia, mean
- 40.3 (34.6, 48.2) years (95% CI)
- Sojourn time in iIFG
- 9.7 (8.4, 11.4) years
Mean sojourn time, normoglycemia ↔ IGT → diabetes model
- Sojourn time in normoglycemia, mean
- 34.5 (29.5, 40.8) years (95% CI)
- Sojourn time in IGT
- 6.1 (5.3, 7.1) years
Original publication
Natural History of Type 2 Diabetes in Indians: Time to Progression. Diabetes Care. Published 1 March 2024. doi:10.
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