Joint association of atherogenic index of plasma and estimated glucose disposal rate with new-onset cardiovascular disease risk in individuals with cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic syndrome stages 0–3: a 9-year nationwide prospective cohort study
Main finding · Incident CVDResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.35 95% CI 1.14–1.59Authors' conclusion
In individuals with CKM stages 0-3, combined AIP and eGDR stratification captured gradients of cardiovascular risk. The combined application of these indicators may provide modest incremental value for risk stratification within CKM stages, thereby aiding in the identification of high-risk individuals during the early stages of CKM.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged ≥45 years without CVD at baseline, in Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) syndrome stages 0–3, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS); mean age 57.92 ± 8.52 years, 54.65% female
- Participants
- 5,925 adults
- Exposure
- Joint atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) and estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) categories (by median); high AIP and low eGDR vs low AIP and high eGDR
- Outcome
- New-onset CVD (also heart disease and stroke)
- Follow-up
- nine-year follow-up
Methodological detailsnationwide, 9-year follow-up
- Nationwide
- 9-year follow-up
Main finding
Incident CVD
Hazard ratio
1.35
95% CI 1.14–1.59
High AIP and low eGDRvs Low AIP and high eGDR
HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.14–1.59)
As reported in the abstract
- Participants developing incident CVD
- 1,467 (24.76%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Heart disease · nine-year follow-up | 1.32 (1.08–1.62) | |
| Stroke · nine-year follow-up | 1.59 (1.19–2.12) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
- Heart disease — Participants developing heart disease
- 1,106 (18.67%)
- Stroke — Participants developing stroke
- 525 (8.86%)
Interaction between AIP and eGDR
- Neither multiplicative nor additive interaction was statistically significant
Predictive value (Harrell's C index, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI))
- Combined AIP and eGDR gave a modest improvement in prediction of CVD, heart disease and stroke
Original publication
Joint association of atherogenic index of plasma and estimated glucose disposal rate with new-onset cardiovascular disease risk in individuals with cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic syndrome stages 0–3: a 9-year nationwide prospective cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 2 May 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →