Assessment of six insulin resistance surrogate indexes for predicting stroke incidence in Chinese middle-aged and elderly populations with abnormal glucose metabolism: a nationwide prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
The six IR surrogate indexes were closely associated with high risk of stroke in individuals with abnormal glucose metabolism. The eGDR showed promising potential in predicting stroke risk in Chinese middle-aged and elderly populations with abnormal glucose metabolism.
Study context
- Population
- Chinese middle-aged and elderly individuals with abnormal glucose metabolism, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)
- Exposure
- Six IR surrogate indexes for predicting stroke
- Outcome
- Stroke risk
Methodological detailsnationwide, multivariate logistic regression, restricted cubic splines, ROC analysis
- Nationwide
- Multivariate logistic regression
- Restricted cubic splines
- ROC analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Stroke risk per SD increase in index
| Group | Adjusted OR per SD (95% CI) |
|---|---|
| Estimate glucose disposal rate (eGDR) | 0.746 (0.661-0.842) |
| Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) | 1.232 (1.106-1.373) |
| Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) | 1.246 (1.050-1.479) |
| TyG-body mass index (TyG-BMI) | 1.186 (1.022-1.376) |
| Metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) | 1.222 (1.069-1.396) |
| Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) | 1.193 (1.050-1.355) |
Adjusted OR per SD (95% CI)
Estimate glucose disposal rate (eGDR)0.746 (0.661-0.842)
Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI)1.232 (1.106-1.373)
Triglyceride-glucose (TyG)1.246 (1.050-1.479)
TyG-body mass index (TyG-BMI)1.186 (1.022-1.376)
Metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR)1.222 (1.069-1.396)
Atherogenic index of plasma (AIP)1.193 (1.050-1.355)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Values |
|---|---|
| Prediction of stroke risk (ROC) | eGDR AUC (95% CI) 0.612 (0.584-0.640) |
Dose-response (restricted cubic splines)
- eGDR, CVAI, TyG-BMI and METS-IR linearly associated with stroke risk
- Pnonlinear ≥ 0.05
- TyG and AIP nonlinearly associated with stroke risk
- Pnonlinear < 0.05
Prediction of stroke risk (ROC)
- AUC of eGDR significantly higher than that of other indexes
Original publication
Assessment of six insulin resistance surrogate indexes for predicting stroke incidence in Chinese middle-aged and elderly populations with abnormal glucose metabolism: a nationwide prospective cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 6 February 2025. doi:10.
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