Estimated glucose disposal rate outperforms thirteen other insulin resistance indices in predicting new-onset cardiometabolic multimorbidity: a longitudinal study from the china health and retirement longitudinal study (CHARLS) and cross-sectional replication from the national health and nutrition examination survey (NHANES)
Authors' conclusion
Across both the Chinese and U.S. study populations, statistically significant and independent associations with CMM were consistently observed for all 14 evaluated IR indices. Among these, eGDR consistently demonstrated the most superior discriminatory performance and risk reclassification capability across longitudinal and cross-sectional settings, single time-point and cumulative assessments, and ethnically distinct populations, supporting its adoption as a preferred, clinically accessible marker for CMM risk stratification. The convergent findings across two large, nationally representative populations of distinct ethnic backgrounds further underscore the cross-population generalizability of eGDR and its potential translational utility in diverse clinical settings.
Study context
- Population
- Middle-aged and older Chinese adults without cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) at baseline (2011), CHARLS; external replication in NHANES (1999–2018)CHARLS
- Participants
- 8,522 participants
- Exposure
- 14 surrogate insulin resistance (IR) indices for predicting incident CMM
- Outcome
- Incident CMM: concurrent presence of ≥2 of T2D, heart disease and stroke
- Follow-up
- Through 2020
Methodological detailslongitudinal, multivariable logistic regression, restricted cubic spline, ROC, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analyses, Cox regression and pre-defined subgroup sensitivity analyses
- Longitudinal
- Multivariable logistic regression
- Restricted cubic spline
- ROC, NRI and IDI analyses
- Cox regression and pre-defined subgroup sensitivity analyses
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- Developed incident CMM
- 591 (6.9%)
- Cumulative eGDR per SD, OR
- 0.51 (0.41-0.65) (95% CI)
- Cumulative SPISE per SD, OR
- 0.64 (0.54-0.75) (95% CI)
- eGDR AUC, baseline
- 0.716
- eGDR AUC, cumulative
- 0.727
- eGDR outperformed TyG in discrimination
- all P < 0.001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Dose-response (restricted cubic spline (RCS))
- Predominantly linear across most indices; significant non-linearity for TyHGB and TyG-AIP
CMM, NHANES cross-sectional replication
- eGDR per SD, OR
- 0.598 (0.499-0.717) (95% CI)
- SPISE per SD, OR
- 0.704 (0.614-0.807) (95% CI)
- eGDR highest AUC
- 0.756
- eGDR greatest NRI and IDI improvements among all indices
- Cross-sectional
Original publication
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