Type 2 & other diabetes

Estimated glucose disposal rate outperforms thirteen other insulin resistance indices in predicting new-onset cardiometabolic multimorbidity: a longitudinal study from the china health and retirement longitudinal study (CHARLS) and cross-sectional replication from the national health and nutrition examination survey (NHANES)

Cardiovasc DiabetolPublished Prospective cohort study with cross-sectional external replication

Authors' conclusion

Across both the Chinese and U.S. study populations, statistically significant and independent associations with CMM were consistently observed for all 14 evaluated IR indices. Among these, eGDR consistently demonstrated the most superior discriminatory performance and risk reclassification capability across longitudinal and cross-sectional settings, single time-point and cumulative assessments, and ethnically distinct populations, supporting its adoption as a preferred, clinically accessible marker for CMM risk stratification. The convergent findings across two large, nationally representative populations of distinct ethnic backgrounds further underscore the cross-population generalizability of eGDR and its potential translational utility in diverse clinical settings.

Study context

Population
Middle-aged and older Chinese adults without cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) at baseline (2011), CHARLS; external replication in NHANES (1999–2018)CHARLS
Participants
8,522 participants
Exposure
14 surrogate insulin resistance (IR) indices for predicting incident CMM
Outcome
Incident CMM: concurrent presence of ≥2 of T2D, heart disease and stroke
Follow-up
Through 2020
Methodological detailslongitudinal, multivariable logistic regression, restricted cubic spline, ROC, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analyses, Cox regression and pre-defined subgroup sensitivity analyses
  • Longitudinal
  • Multivariable logistic regression
  • Restricted cubic spline
  • ROC, NRI and IDI analyses
  • Cox regression and pre-defined subgroup sensitivity analyses

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Incident CMM
Developed incident CMM
591 (6.9%)
Cumulative eGDR per SD, OR
0.51 (0.41-0.65) (95% CI)
Cumulative SPISE per SD, OR
0.64 (0.54-0.75) (95% CI)
eGDR AUC, baseline
0.716
eGDR AUC, cumulative
0.727
eGDR outperformed TyG in discrimination
all P < 0.001

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Dose-response (restricted cubic spline (RCS))

Predominantly linear across most indices; significant non-linearity for TyHGB and TyG-AIP

CMM, NHANES cross-sectional replication

eGDR per SD, OR
0.598 (0.499-0.717) (95% CI)
SPISE per SD, OR
0.704 (0.614-0.807) (95% CI)
eGDR highest AUC
0.756
eGDR greatest NRI and IDI improvements among all indices
  • Cross-sectional

Original publication

Estimated glucose disposal rate outperforms thirteen other insulin resistance indices in predicting new-onset cardiometabolic multimorbidity: a longitudinal study from the china health and retirement longitudinal study (CHARLS) and cross-sectional replication from the national health and nutrition examination survey (NHANES). Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 1 June 2026. doi:10.1186/s12933-026-03218-9

Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →

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