Evaluating global epidemiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus among the working‐age population: A 60‐year study by interpretable machine learning framework
Authors' conclusion
Global T2DM burden among the WAP shows alarming trends, particularly in ageing societies where labour forces are highly valued. Tailored WAP guidelines may reduce T2DM burden worldwide, but stronger efforts on obesity and climate change are essential for effective T2DM management.
Study context
- Population
- Working-age population worldwide, 1990–2021, Global Burden of Disease 2021 study
- Outcome
- Global T2D incident cases in working-age population
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2050 (projected)
Methodological detailsXGBoost prediction models, SHAP interpretability analysis, forecast to 2050
- XGBoost prediction models
- SHAP interpretability analysis
- Forecast to 2050
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Global incident cases projected to increase five-fold, 1990 to 2050
6.33 million to 32.38 million
Fastest growth: North Africa/Middle East (EAPC)
3.45
Further findings
Relationship between socio-demographic index and T2D burden
- Traditional inverse relationship between socio-demographic index and T2D burden is reversing
- P < 0.01
- UK age-standardised DALY rates accelerating by 2050 (EAPC)
- 1.43
Drivers (SHAP analysis)
- Age the predominant contributor; high blood glucose, BMI and air pollution consistently influential
- High temperature and alcohol consumption increasingly significant factors
Original publication
Evaluating global epidemiology of type 2 diabetes mellitus among the working‐age population: A 60‐year study by interpretable machine learning framework. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 8 October 2025. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →