Effect of Weight Change on Type 2 Diabetes Risk: A Prospective Study in a Japanese Population
Authors' conclusion
Both preventing weight gain and reducing weight are important for lowering the risk of type 2 diabetes in Japanese individuals, particularly among those with a BMI of 22 or greater.
Study context
- Population
- Nondiabetic residents of Kochi, Japan, with health examinations April 2013–March 2015 (16,914 men, 24,625 women)
- Participants
- 41,539 residents
- Exposure
- 1-year weight change categories vs stable body weight
- Outcome
- New-onset T2D
- Follow-up
- mean 5.7-year follow-up
Methodological detailsCox proportional hazards models
- Cox proportional hazards models
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
T2D risk vs stable body weight
Higher risk (CI)P value
Increase 1.0%–2.9%vs Stablehigher risk with weight increase
15%(4%–26%)
P = 0.005Increase 3.0%–4.9%vs Stablehigher risk with weight increase
35%(20%–53%)
P < 0.001Increase ≥5.0%vs Stablehigher risk with weight increase
51%(29%–76%)
P < 0.001- Decrease 1.0%–2.9% vs Stable · lower risk with weight decrease
- lower risk 16% (CI 8%–24%); P < 0.001
- Decrease 3.0%–4.9% vs Stable · lower risk with weight decrease
- lower risk 25% (CI 15%–34%); P < 0.001
- Decrease ≥5.0% vs Stable · lower risk with weight decrease
- lower risk 26% (CI 14%–36%); P < 0.001
- New-onset T2D cases
- 3564
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Subgroups: Body mass index (BMI) ≥25 or ≥10-kg weight gain since age 20 y
- Associations persisted
Subgroup: BMI 22 to 25
- Weight increase ≥3.0% showed a higher risk
Subgroups: BMI <22 or aged ≥75 y
- No associations observed
Original publication
Effect of Weight Change on Type 2 Diabetes Risk: A Prospective Study in a Japanese Population. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 8 October 2025. doi:10.
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