Diabetes complications

Diabetic retinopathy and mortality in adults with diabetes: causal mediation analysis of the role of HbA1c

Diabetes Res Clin PractPublished Cohort study with causal mediation analysis

Main finding · All-cause mortalityResult — go to the resultAdjusted hazard ratio 1.34 95 % CI 1.20–1.51

Authors' conclusion

DR is associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, and this excess risk appears to be partly linked through higher HbA1c levels. These findings suggest that elevated glycemic burden may serve as one pathway connecting DR to increased mortality in adults with diabetes.

Study context

Population
Adults with self-reported diabetes, NHANES 2001–2018
Participants
5,658 adults
Exposure
Diabetic retinopathy (DR) vs no DR
Outcome
All-cause mortality, via linkage to the National Death Index
Methodological detailsNHANES 2001-2018, Cox proportional hazards models
  • NHANES 2001-2018
  • Cox proportional hazards models

Main finding

All-cause mortality

Adjusted hazard ratio

1.34

95 % CI 1.20–1.51

P < 0.0001

DRvs Without DR
adjusted HR 1.34 (95 % CI 1.20–1.51); P < 0.0001

As reported in the abstract

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

OutcomeHR (95 % CI)P value
All-cause mortality, highestvs lowest HbA1c tertile30 % greater risk of death1.30 (1.14–1.48)P < 0.0001

All-cause mortality per 1 % increase in HbA1c

HR per 1 % HbA1c increase
1.07 (95 % CI 1.04-1.10; P < 0.0001)

Mediation by HbA1c of DR-associated excess mortality

Proportion of excess mortality risk associated with DR accounted for by HbA1c
9.1 %

Original publication

Diabetic retinopathy and mortality in adults with diabetes: causal mediation analysis of the role of HbA1c. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 9 October 2025. doi:10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112936

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