Development of the health economic model for type 2 diabetes considering glycaemic variability
Authors' conclusion
This study developed and validated a health-economic model incorporating glycaemic variability, which provides a potentially robust tool to inform economic evaluations of novel interventions.
Study context
- Population
- Simulated patients with T2D; model primarily using UK Prospective Diabetes Study data
Methodological detailsMonte Carlo-based Markov model, glycaemic variability module (time in range (TIR)), face, internal and external validation, exploratory scenario analysis
- Monte Carlo-based Markov model
- Glycaemic variability module (TIR)
- Face, internal and external validation
- Exploratory scenario analysis
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
Model validation
- Internal and external validation R2
- exceeding 0.95
- Root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), internal validation
- 0.328
- RMSPE, external validation
- 0.347
- Symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), internal validation
- 0.175
- SMAPE, external validation
- 0.279
Further findings
Exploratory scenario analysis: TIR improvement modelled from 0% to 100% · first decade
- Cumulative incidence of background retinopathy, microalbuminuria, peripheral vascular disease and mortality decreased as TIR improved
- Incidence gaps narrowed in the long run, consistent with clinical observations
Original publication
Development of the health economic model for type 2 diabetes considering glycaemic variability. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 26 January 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →