Lipids & metabolic liver disease

Derivatives of the triglyceride–glucose index and their association with incident hypertension in prehypertensive individuals: a 4-year cohort study augmented by mendelian randomization

Cardiovasc DiabetolPublished Prospective cohort study with Mendelian randomization analysis

Authors' conclusion

Our study reveals a significant link between the TyG index and its related indicators with new-onset hypertension in prehypertensive populations. Causal analysis using BWMR confirmed that genetically elevated TyG index levels increase the risk of new-onset hypertension. These results highlight the importance of monitoring TyG-related indices for early detection and intervention in high-risk individuals, aiding in the prevention of hypertension progression.

Study context

Population
Prehypertensive participants from the 2011 CHARLS database877 progressed to hypertension
Participants
2,815 participants
Exposure
TyG index and derived metrics, per unit and by quartiles
Outcome
New-onset hypertension
Follow-up
By 2015
Methodological details4-year follow-up, Bayesian weighted MR
  • 4-year follow-up
  • Bayesian weighted MR

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Multivariable regression
Odds ratio (95% CI)P value
TyG index, per unit increase
1.45(1.24–1.70)
P < 0.001
TyG-WHtR, per unit increase
1.42(1.26–1.60)
P < 0.001

Per unit increase, as printed

Incidence of new-onset hypertension
877 (31.15%)
Higher quartiles (Q3 and Q4) of TyG and derived metrics significantly linked to elevated risk across all models
P < 0.001

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Dose-response (restricted cubic spline (RCS))

TyG index and TyG-Waist Circumference (TyG-WC): significant positive linear relationships (P for overall < 0.001)
P for nonlinearity = 0.844 and 0.165, respectively
TyG-Waist-to-Height Ratio (TyG-WHtR) and TyG-Body Mass Index (TyG-BMI): significant positive nonlinear relationships (P for overall < 0.001)
P for nonlinearity = 0.001 and 0.046, respectively

Subgroup analyses

Stronger associations in those aged ≥ 70 years, widowed, with CVD, or life satisfaction score of 2
P < 0.05, P for interaction < 0.05

Bayesian weighted MR (BWMR) causal analysis

Significant causal relationship between genetically elevated TyG index and increased risk of new-onset hypertension
P < 0.05

Original publication

Derivatives of the triglyceride–glucose index and their association with incident hypertension in prehypertensive individuals: a 4-year cohort study augmented by mendelian randomization. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 11 July 2025. doi:10.1186/s12933-025-02813-6

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