Type 2 & other diabetes

Circulating metabolites, genetics and lifestyle factors in relation to future risk of type 2 diabetes

Nat MedPublished Pooled prospective cohort study with metabolomic, genomic and lifestyle data integration

Authors' conclusion

These findings provide a foundation for understanding T2D mechanisms and may inform precision prevention targeting specific metabolic pathways.

Study context

Population
Initially T2D-free participants from ten cohortsup to
Participants
23,634 participants
Outcome
Metabolites associated with incident T2D
Follow-up
Up to 26 years
Methodological detailsten cohorts, multi-omics
  • Ten cohorts
  • Multi-omics

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Metabolites examined

469

Metabolites associated with incident T2D

235

Associations not previously reported (bile acid, lipid, carnitine, urea cycle and arginine/proline, glycine and histidine pathways)

67

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Genetic analyses

Metabolites linked to signaling pathways and clinical traits central to T2D pathophysiology (insulin resistance, glucose/insulin response, ectopic fat deposition, energy/lipid regulation, liver function)

Lifestyle factors

Physical activity, obesity and diet explained greater variations in T2D-associated vs non-associated metabolites; specific metabolites potential mediators

T2D risk prediction

44-metabolite signature improved T2D risk prediction beyond conventional factors

Original publication

Circulating metabolites, genetics and lifestyle factors in relation to future risk of type 2 diabetes. Nat Med. Published 14 January 2026. doi:10.1038/s41591-025-04105-8

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