Type 2 & other diabetes

Association of circulating metabolites and polygenic risk score with incident type 2 diabetes: a prospective community-based cohort study

Cardiovasc DiabetolPublished Prospective community-based cohort study

Authors' conclusion

Several metabolites were found to mediate the association between PRS and incident T2DM. These findings may contribute to a better understanding of the metabolic pathways involved in genetic susceptibility to T2DM.

Study context

Population
Community-based participants aged ≥20 years in Japan354 T2D cases
Participants
12,461 participants
Exposure
PRS and circulating metabolites vs incident T2D
Outcome
Incident T2D (non-fasting glucose ≥200 mg/dL, HbA1c ≥6.5%, or self-reported T2D treatment)
Follow-up
4.3-year median
Methodological detailsgenome-wide and pathway-based polygenic risk scores, NMR metabolomics (43 metabolites), modified Poisson regression, mediation analysis
  • Genome-wide and pathway-based polygenic risk scores
  • NMR metabolomics (43 metabolites)
  • Modified Poisson regression
  • Mediation analysis

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Incident T2D

Higher genome-wide PRS, RR per 1-SD increment

2.09

95% CI 1.68–2.60P < 0.001

Nitrogen compound transport pathway PRS, RR per 1-SD increment

1.32

95% CI 1.03–1.70P < 0.001

Metabolites positively associated with T2D risk (glucose, 2-ketoisocaproic acid, glutamic acid, leucine, 2-aminobutyric acid, 2-hydroxybutyric acid, valine, 3-methyl-2-oxobutyric acid, alanine, 3-hydroxybutyric acid, 3-methyl-2-oxiovaleric acid, formic acid, arginine, tyrosine)

14

Metabolites (of 43) positively associated with PRS (P for linear trend < 0.05)

14

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Original publication

Association of circulating metabolites and polygenic risk score with incident type 2 diabetes: a prospective community-based cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 14 August 2025. doi:10.1186/s12933-025-02849-8

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