Trends in cause-specific mortality among people with and without diabetes in high-income settings: a multinational, population-based study
Authors' conclusion
Mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes has declined among people with diabetes in most jurisdictions, whereas mortality from dementia has increased markedly, independent of age. Cardiovascular disease is no longer universally the most common COD among people with diabetes in high-income countries.
Study context
- Population
- People with and without diabetes in 11 high-income jurisdictions, 2000–202311 jurisdictions
- Exposure
- People with diabetes vs without diabetes
- Outcome
- Cause-specific trends in mortality rates, proportional mortality and MRR for people with vs without diabetes
Methodological detailsmultinational, aggregated administrative data, Poisson models standardised for age and sex
- Multinational
- Aggregated administrative data
- Poisson models standardised for age and sex
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Cause-specific mortality trends
Estimate (CI)
Diabetesvs Without diabetesmore rapid fall in CVD mortality with diabetes
mean 5-year change in MRR, CVD (Lithuania) −7.6%(−10.1 to −5.1)
Between Diabetes and Without diabetes
5-year change in MRR, dementia (Denmark) 8.0%(5.0–11.1)
Between Diabetes and Without diabetes
5-year change in MRR, dementia (Scotland) 11.4%(8.5–14.3)
- Deaths in people with diabetes
- 2.7 million
- Deaths in people without diabetes
- 11.0 million
- Total follow-up
- 1.7 billion person-years
- Mean 5-year decline in CVD mortality with diabetes, range
- 8.3% (95% CI 5.9 to 10.7) to 25.4% (22.8 to 28.0)
- Dementia mortality increased with and without diabetes, jurisdictions
- 6 (86%) of 7
- Cancer mortality declined with diabetes, jurisdictions
- 3 (33%) of 9
- Cancer mortality declined without diabetes, jurisdictions
- 6 (67%)
- Cancer leading cause of death with diabetes at end of observation, jurisdictions
- 4 (36%) of 11
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Trends in cause-specific mortality among people with and without diabetes in high-income settings: a multinational, population-based study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. Published 9 March 2026. doi:10.
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