The global burden of early‐onset type 2 diabetes (1990–2050): An age–period–cohort analysis of incidence, disparities, and projections
Authors' conclusion
The global burden of early-onset T2DM rose markedly over the past three decades, with distinct disparities. Persistent inequalities, the dominant role of high BMI, and projected increases highlight an urgent need for targeted prevention in younger populations and high-risk groups.
Study context
- Population
- Early-onset T2D (diagnosed at 15–39 years), 204 countries, 1990–2021204 countries
Methodological detailsage–period–cohort analysis, trend analysis, socioeconomic inequality assessment, decomposition, frontier analysis, risk factor analysis, Bayesian projections
- Age–period–cohort analysis
- Trend analysis
- Socioeconomic inequality assessment
- Decomposition
- Frontier analysis
- Risk factor analysis
- Bayesian projections
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
Global burden of early-onset T2D · 1990–2021
Increase in global prevalent cases
222.32%
EAPC of ASIR
2.45
EAPC of ASPR
2.85
EAPC of ASDR
2.10
Further findings
Socioeconomic inequality
- Increase in mortality disparity affecting low-income populations
- 35%
Drivers and risk factors
- Share of attributable DALYs due to high BMI
- 44.7%-69.2%
- Epidemiological changes were the primary driver of increased incidence and DALYs
Projections · 2050
- Projected ASIR
- 529.52 per 100 000
- Projected new cases
- 17.14 million
Original publication
The global burden of early‐onset type 2 diabetes (1990–2050): An age–period–cohort analysis of incidence, disparities, and projections. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 10 November 2025. doi:10.
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