Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Errata to this article were published (Lancet, 30 Sep 2023 ↗ · 18 Jan 2025 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.
Study context
- Population
- 204 countries and territories, 25 age groups, males and females, 1990–2021204 countries and territories
- Outcome
- Diabetes prevalence and burden (DALYs)
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021; projections to 2050
Methodological detailsBayesian meta-regression (DisMod-MR 2.1), Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), comparative risk assessment, projections to 2050
- Bayesian meta-regression (DisMod-MR 2.1)
- CODEm
- Comparative risk assessment
- Projections to 2050
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- People living with diabetes worldwide
- 529 million (95% UI 500-564)
- Global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence (5.8-6.5)
- 6.1%
- Highest super-region age-standardised rate: north Africa and the Middle East (8.7-9.9)
- 9.3%
- Highest regional rate: Oceania (11.5-13.0)
- 12.3%
- Qatar, age 75-79 years, age-specific prevalence (73.1-79.5)
- 76.1%
- T2D share of diabetes cases (95.1-96.8)
- 96.0%
- T2D share of diabetes disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) (94.9-95.9)
- 95.4%
Further findings
T2D DALYs attributable to high body-mass index (BMI) · 2021; change 1990–2021
- Global T2D DALYs attributable to high BMI in 2021 (25.5-71.8)
- 52.2%
- Rise in high-BMI contribution to T2D DALYs, 1990–2021 (18.5-30.4)
- 24.3%
Projected diabetes prevalence · 2050
- People projected to have diabetes (1.22-1.39)
- more than 1.31 billion
- North Africa and the Middle East age-standardised prevalence (16.1-17.6)
- 16.8%
- Latin America and Caribbean age-standardised prevalence (10.8-11.9)
- 11.3%
- Countries and territories with age-standardised rate >10%
- 89 (43.6%) of 204
Original publication
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