Global Burden of type 2 diabetes in non-elderly individuals 1990 to 2021 and projections for 2050: a systematic analysis of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease
Authors' conclusion
This study on the burden of T2D reveals that its prevalence among non-elderly individuals is steadily increasing and is projected to affect over a billion people worldwide by 2050. Targeted measures are crucial to tackle this global health challenge for this population.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged 15 to 59 across 204 countries and regions, 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions by Sociodemographic Index (SDI), 1990–2021204 countries and regions
- Outcome
- Global age-standardized incidence rate of T2D
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021
Methodological detailsjoin-point regression, Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort models, projections to 2050
- Join-point regression
- Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort models
- Projections to 2050
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Age-standardized incidence rate in 1990
196.3 per 100,000
95% UI 145.2–257.4
Age-standardized incidence rate in 2021
361.1 per 100,000
95% UI 275.2–458.4
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Sex, SDI and risk factors
- Men lead prevalence, incidence, mortality rate and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across nearly all age groups
- Low-middle SDI countries bear the most severe disease burden
- High BMI is a major risk factor
Projected non-elderly individuals with T2D · 2050
- Approximately, worldwide; epidemiological changes the primary driver
- 1.195 billion
Original publication
Global Burden of type 2 diabetes in non-elderly individuals 1990 to 2021 and projections for 2050: a systematic analysis of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease. Diabetes Metab. Published 8 May 2025. doi:10.
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