The Epidemiological Landscape of Thyroid Cancer and Estimates of Overdiagnosis in China: A Population-Based Study
Authors' conclusion
The incidence rates of TC have considerably increased over the past 25 years in China.
Study context
- Population
- Thyroid cancer cases in China, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents databases; overdiagnosis estimated in patients aged 15–84 years
- Exposure
- Males vs Females
- Outcome
- Thyroid cancer (TC) incidence attributable to overdiagnosis
- Follow-up
- 2013-2017
Methodological detailsjoinpoint regression, age-period-cohort models
- Joinpoint regression
- Age-period-cohort models
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Proportion of TC cases attributable to overdiagnosis
| Group | Value | ASIR attributable to overdiagnosis |
|---|---|---|
| Males | 83.5% | 5.9/100,000 |
| Females | 88.7% | 19.1/100,000 |
Value
Males83.5%
Females88.7%
ASIR attributable to overdiagnosis
Males5.9/100,000
Females19.1/100,000
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Males | Females |
|---|---|---|
| New TC cases and ASIR · 2013-2017 | 6.9/100,000 | 21.1/100,000 |
| Average annual percent change in ASIR · 1993 to 2017Significant upward trends | 14.7% | 16.2% |
IRR of period effects · 1993 to 2017
- Males: increased from 1.0 to
- 61.8
- Females: increased from 1.0 to
- 42.9
ASIR attributable to overdiagnosis, urban vs rural · 2013-2017
- Urban, males
- 6.9/100,000
- Urban, females
- 21.7/100,000
- Rural, males
- 1.3/100,000
- Rural, females
- 6.4/100,000
- Urban significantly higher than rural
Provincial ASIR attributable to overdiagnosis (25 provinces)
- Males: Sichuan to Shanghai
- 0.3/100,000 to 18.5/100,000
- Females: Shanxi to Shanghai
- 0.1/100,000 to 49.4/100,000
National ASIR attributable to overdiagnosis, 2008-2012 to 2013-2017
- Males
- 2.6/100,000 to 5.9/100,000
- Females
- 9.2/100,000 to 19.1/100,000
Original publication
The Epidemiological Landscape of Thyroid Cancer and Estimates of Overdiagnosis in China: A Population-Based Study. Thyroid. Published 19 February 2025. doi:10.
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