Evolving epidemiological patterns of thyroid cancer and estimates of overdiagnosis in 2013–17 in 63 countries worldwide: a population-based study
Authors' conclusion
Although the incidence of thyroid cancer has reached a plateau or decrease in some high-income countries, the magnitude of overdiagnosis is still very large and the expansion of overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer to the transitioning countries has been rapid, which makes it a global public health challenge that needs to be addressed.
Study context
- Population
- Population-based cancer registries in the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Global Cancer Observatory (continents (CI5) plus: 97 registries, 43 countries, 1980–2017; CI5-XII: 385 registries, 63 countries); WHO mortality data 1980–2022cases, 63 countries
- Participants
- 2,297,057 participants
- Outcome
- Estimated numbers of thyroid cancer cases and overdiagnosed cases, extrapolated to the whole country
- Follow-up
- 2013-17
Methodological detailsregistry-based, 63 countries, direct age standardisation
- Registry-based
- 63 countries
- Direct age standardisation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Cases attributable to overdiagnosis, overall
1 736 133 (75.6%) of 2 297 057
Overdiagnosed cases, females
1 368 181
Overdiagnosed cases, males
367 952
Range across countries: no overdiagnosis (Uganda, Zimbabwe, Trinidad and Tobago) to overdiagnosed share in females (Cyprus, China, South Korea, Türkiye)
>85.0%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Incidence ASR trends · 1980-2017
- Difference between highest and lowest incidence, males, over study period
- 2.7 to 23.5 per 100 000
- Incidence rose in most countries; highest in South Korea, Cyprus, Ecuador, China and Türkiye; upward trend until early 2010s then downward in South Korea, USA, Canada, Israel and some Western European countries
- Difference between highest and lowest incidence, females: <10.0 per 100 000 (early 1980s) to 101.4 per 100 000 (2012)
Mortality ASR · study period
- Mortality substantially lower; difference between highest and lowest rates across countries, both sexes
- around 1.0-2.0 per 100 000
- Mortality increased with age in all countries; age-specific incidence inverted U-shape in most
Subtype · 2013-17
- PTC contributed to the large variation in incidence age-standardised rates (ASRs)
Original publication
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