Temporal stability of cardiometabolic risk factors from the perspective of primordial disease prevention in children
Authors' conclusion
Individualised biomarker screening at low FPR misclassifies the majority of children who will have high values as adults (low statistical feasibility).
Study context
- Population
- Individuals born 1962–1992 from four European local community cohorts; ages 5–49 years, follow-ups 15–31 years
- Participants
- 12,212 individuals
- Outcome
- Longitudinal tracking of body mass and lipid biomarkers (autocorrelation R2 between visits, modelled by exponential decay)
- Follow-up
- 15 years
Methodological detailsfour European local community cohorts, longitudinal time-series, exponential decay model
- Four European local community cohorts
- Longitudinal time-series
- Exponential decay model
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Autocorrelation for two surveys 15 years apart, R2(15)
R2(15), BMI
35.7%
R2(15), waist-height ratio
28.1%
R2(15), LDL-C
32.5%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Detection rate at 5% false positive rate (FPR) (detection rate (DR5)) of children in top risk decile as adults · 15 years
- DR5(15), BMI
- 38.9%
- DR5(15), LDL-C
- 30.9%
Original publication
Temporal stability of cardiometabolic risk factors from the perspective of primordial disease prevention in children. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 21 July 2026. doi:10.
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