Rotavirus vaccination and incidence of type 1 diabetes: a population-based natural experiment
Main finding · T1D incidence trend (primary interrupted time series analysis)Result — go to the resultRelative hazard ratio 1.11 95% CI 1.03–1.20Authors' conclusion
This study found no evidence for a reduced risk of type 1 diabetes after introduction of rotavirus vaccination in infancy.
Study context
- Population
- All children born in Norway during 2007–2019, followed from 6 months to 5 years of age846 diagnosed with T1D
- Participants
- 740,744 children
- Exposure
- Children born after vs before introduction of the rotavirus vaccination programme (September 2014)
- Outcome
- T1D incidence
- Follow-up
- 6 months to 5 years of age
Methodological detailsnatural experiment, interrupted time series analysis
- Natural experiment
- Interrupted time series analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
T1D incidence trend (primary interrupted time series analysis)
Relative hazard ratio
1.11
95% CI 1.03–1.20
After introductionvs Before introduction
relative HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.03–1.20)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| T1D incidence trend excluding 2013-2015 birth cohorts (to avoid potential herd immunity effects) | relative HR 1.05 (95% CI 0.93–1.18) | |
| T1D: fully vaccinatedvs non-vaccinated children (secondary analysis) | aHR 1.17 (95% CI 0.78–1.77) | |
| 0.512Ratio (log scale) |
Original publication
Rotavirus vaccination and incidence of type 1 diabetes: a population-based natural experiment. Diabetologia. Published 28 August 2026. doi:10. 1007/ s00125-026-06832-0
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