Risk stratification using coronary artery calcium and potential benefit of semaglutide therapy: A cost‐effectiveness modelling study
Main finding · MACE riskResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.97 95% CI 1.66–2.35Authors' conclusion
CAC scores have potential use as a tool to estimate potential clinical benefit and cost for lifetime semaglutide therapy among obese individuals.
Study context
- Population
- CLARIFY registry participants meeting SELECT criteria with coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoresCLARIFY registry
- Participants
- 38,058 participants
- Comparison
- Semaglutide therapy across CAC groups
- Outcome
- Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (composite of MI, HF, stroke or all-cause mortality) risk across CAC groups; NNT and ICER of semaglutide
Methodological detailslifetime-horizon Markov models, multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, sensitivity analyses
- Lifetime-horizon Markov models
- Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models
- Sensitivity analyses
Main finding
MACE risk
Hazard ratio
1.97
95% CI 1.66–2.35
CAC ≥400vs CAC = 0
HR 1.97 (95% CI 1.66–2.35)
As reported in the abstract
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| HFCAC ≥400vs CAC = 0 | 1.76 (1.36–2.28) | |
| MortalityCAC ≥400vs CAC = 0 | 1.62 (1.21–2.17) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
| Outcome | CAC = 0 | CAC ≥400 |
|---|---|---|
| Modelled MACE NNT with semaglutide · 3.3 years of semaglutide use | 151 (CI 108–302) | 34 (CI 25–69) |
| Markov modelled ICER for semaglutide · lifetime horizon | $625 863 /QALY | $168 666 /QALY |
Markov modelled ICER for semaglutide · lifetime horizon
- ICER reduced across CAC groups
Original publication
Risk stratification using coronary artery calcium and potential benefit of semaglutide therapy: A cost‐effectiveness modelling study. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 2 February 2026. doi:10.
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