Population‐level impact of semaglutide 2.4 mg in patients with obesity or overweight and cardiovascular disease: A modelling study based on the SELECT trial
Authors' conclusion
Four in 10 individuals in the United States meeting the SELECT criteria are estimated to experience a recurrent CV event without additional intervention. Semaglutide 2.4 mg can potentially prevent between half a million and up to 2 million MACE over the next 10 years in the population meeting SELECT and MACE risk reduction eligibility.
Study context
- Population
- US adults with overweight/obesity meeting SELECT inclusion criteria and, separately, adults eligible for semaglutide 2.4 mg for its major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) risk reduction indication; 2023 census projections and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey datamodelled US adults meeting SELECT criteria
- Participants
- 6,164,019 adults
- Exposure
- Semaglutide 2.4 mg vs no additional intervention
- Outcome
- Recurrent MACE and deaths
- Follow-up
- 10 years
Methodological detailsMarkov population-based predictive models, based on the SELECT trial
- Markov population-based predictive models
- Based on the SELECT trial
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
MACE in population meeting SELECT criteria
No additional intervention
40.9%
2 523 218 events
- MACE events prevented with semaglutide 2.4 mg
- 496 400
- Relative reduction in MACE
- 16%
- Predicted deaths
- 2 103 630
- Deaths (any cause) avoided with semaglutide 2.4 mg
- 332 597
- Relative reduction in deaths
- 16%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
MACE and deaths in population meeting MACE risk reduction Food and Drug Administration (FDA) label criteria · 10 years
- Population meeting FDA label criteria
- 22 653 158
- Could experience ≥1 new MACE
- 42.7%
- MACE prevented with treatment
- 1 934 493
- Deaths prevented with treatment
- 1 231 295
- Relative reduction for both
- 16%
Original publication
Population‐level impact of semaglutide 2.4 mg in patients with obesity or overweight and cardiovascular disease: A modelling study based on the SELECT trial. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 4 April 2025. doi:10.
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