Projecting the macroeconomic burden of high body mass index related diseases in China: A Bayesian productivity‐adjusted life years approach based on global burden of diseases 2023
Authors' conclusion
High BMI-related diseases caused a substantial health and macroeconomic burden in China's working-age population, with rising trends projected to continue.
Study context
- Population
- Chinese adults aged 20–64 years (working-age population)
- Outcome
- Burden of high BMI-related diseases
- Follow-up
- 2023
Methodological detailsGlobal Burden of Disease Study 2023 data, joinpoint regression, demographic decomposition, age-period-cohort modelling, Bayesian age-period-cohort projections, B-PALY framework
- Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 data
- Joinpoint regression
- Demographic decomposition
- Age-period-cohort modelling
- Bayesian age-period-cohort projections
- B-PALY framework
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- Deaths
- 118 511
- Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
- 9.7 million
- Share of all deaths in working-age population
- ≈20%
- Share of all DALYs in working-age population
- 25%
- Macroeconomic burden (B-PALY)
- ≈129.77 billion Intl$ (about 0.03% of China's 2023 GDP)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Trends 1990–2023
- Burden showed significant upward trends
- Population aging and growth primary drivers, partially offset by epidemiological changes
- Burden increasing with age; elevated DALY risks in recent birth cohorts
Projections · through 2050
- Projected cumulative macroeconomic losses 2023 to 2029
- Intl $1.14 trillion
- Substantial rise in absolute deaths and DALYs attributable to high body mass index (BMI)
Original publication
Projecting the macroeconomic burden of high body mass index related diseases in China: A Bayesian productivity‐adjusted life years approach based on global burden of diseases 2023. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 2 February 2026. doi:10.
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