Projecting Global Trends and Inequalities in Adult Overweight and Obesity, 2023–2040: Findings From the NCD‐RisC Database
Authors' conclusion
The global burden of overweight and obesity has significantly increased from 1990 to 2040. Health inequalities decreased from 1990 to 2022, with the burden mainly in higher-income countries. However, by 2040, the burden of overweight and mild obesity is projected to shift to lower-income countries, highlighting the need for targeted health policies and interventions.
Study context
- Population
- Adults globally, overweight and obesity burden data from the NCD-RisC database, 1990–2022, projected to 2023–2040
- Outcome
- Global prevalence of overweight and obesity
- Follow-up
- 1990, 2022 and projected 2040
Methodological detailsBayesian projection model, NCD-RisC database, inequality analysis (slope index of inequality (SII), relative concentration index (RCI))
- Bayesian projection model
- NCD-RisC database
- Inequality analysis (SII, RCI)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Overweight prevalence 1990 → 2022
17.50% → 28.00%
AAPC = 1.48%
Overweight prevalence projected by 2040
43.97%
AAPC = 1.13%
Obesity prevalence 1990 → 2022
6.44% → 16.06%
AAPC = 2.46%
Obesity prevalence projected by 2040
38.96%
AAPC = 4.96%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Cross-national inequality: slope index of inequality (SII) · 1990, 2022, projected 2040
- SII overweight 1990 → 2022 → 2040 (projected)
- 33.74% → 16.24% → −2.42%
- SII obesity (BMI ≥ 30.0 kg/m²) 1990 → 2022 → 2040 (projected)
- 20.12% → 18.58% → 9.35%
- SII mild obesity (BMI 30.0-34.9 kg/m²) 1990 → 2022 → 2040 (projected)
- 14.22% → 10.02% → −1.70%
Share of global prevalence burden in countries with lowest GDP per capita · 1990 to 2040
- Overweight
- 15% → 22%
- Obesity
- 6% → 26%
- Relative gradient inequality (RCI) showed similar findings
Original publication
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