Lipids & metabolic liver disease
Predicting long-term prognosis after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with new onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction: development and external validation of a nomogram model
Authors' conclusion
Our validated prediction nomogram based on the TyG index and electronic health records data was shown to provide accurate and reliable discrimination of new-onset STEMI patients at high- and low-risk for major adverse cardiac events at 2, 3 and 5 years following emergency PCI.
Study context
- Population
- New-onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients admitted at two heart centers for emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), December 2015 to March 2018
- Participants
- 404 vs 169
- Exposure
- Development vs Validation
- Developmentn = 404
- Validationn = 169
- Outcome
- MACE (long-term prognosis) after emergency PCI
- Follow-up
- 2, 3 and 5 years
Methodological detailsprediction model development and external validation, two heart centers, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, multiple Cox regression, nomogram
- Prediction model development and external validation
- Two heart centers
- LASSO regression
- Multiple Cox regression
- Nomogram
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Nomogram discrimination (Harrell's C-index); nomogram variables: age, DM, current smoking, triglyceride glucose (TyG) index
| Group | Value | Harrell's C-index |
|---|---|---|
| Development | 0.772 (95% CI 0.721–0.823) | 0.772 |
| Validation | 0.736 (95% CI 0.656–0.816) | 0.736 |
Value
Development0.772 (95% CI 0.721–0.823)
Validation0.736 (95% CI 0.656–0.816)
Harrell's C-index
Development0.772
Validation0.736
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Calibration
- Significant correlation between predicted and actual outcomes in both cohorts; nomogram well calibrated
Decision curve analysis
- Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical value of the development prediction nomogram
Original publication
Predicting long-term prognosis after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with new onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction: development and external validation of a nomogram model. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 13 April 2023. doi:10.
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