Gestational diabetes & diabetes in pregnancy
Predicting future risk of type 1 and type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus using polygenic scores: a cohort study
Authors' conclusion
In women with previous GDM, the T1D-PGS showed good predictive ability for the development of type 1 diabetes, especially when combined with clinical risk factors during pregnancy, and may have potential to guide targeted follow-up and early treatment interventions. The T2D-PGS showed no predictive ability for type 2 diabetes.
Study context
- Population
- Women diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) between 1978 and 1996; diabetes identified from national registry ICD-10 codes until 2019 plus glucose tolerance test in 2000–2002
- Participants
- 370 women
- Exposure
- T1D-PGS and T2D-PGS vs clinical risk factors during pregnancy vs combined model for predicting diabetes
- Outcome
- Predictive ability (ROC AUC) of T1D-PGS and T2D-PGS for overt type 1 and type 2 diabetes
- Follow-up
- Median 30 years
Methodological detailsobservational
- Observational
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- T1D-PGS AUC for type 1 diabetes
- 0.788
- Clinical risk factors AUC for type 1 diabetes
- 0.839
- Combined model AUC for type 1 diabetes
- 0.887
- T2D-PGS AUC for type 2 diabetes
- 0.539
- Clinical risk factors AUC for type 2 diabetes
- 0.745
- Combined model AUC for type 2 diabetes
- 0.752
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Type 1 diabetes vs No type 1 diabetes
Mean
| Outcome | Type 1 diabetes | No type 1 diabetes | P value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean T1D-PGS, women with vs without type 1 diabetes | 13.6 | 11.5 | P < 0.001 |
Type 2 diabetes vs No type 2 diabetes
| Outcome | Type 2 diabetes | No type 2 diabetes | P value |
|---|---|---|---|
| T2D-PGS, women with vs without type 2 diabetes | 52.9 | 52.8 | P = 0.16 |
Diabetes incidence · median follow-up 30 years
- Any diabetes
- 200 (54.1%)
- Type 1 diabetes
- 30 (8.1%)
- Type 2 diabetes
- 157 (42.4%)
- Monogenic diabetes variants
- 13 (3.5%)
Original publication
Predicting future risk of type 1 and type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus using polygenic scores: a cohort study. Diabetologia. Published 4 August 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →