One-hour plasma glucose defining stages of type 2 diabetes − The ELSA-Brasil study
Authors' conclusion
Staging captured progressive deterioration to type 2 diabetes. Adding 1-h PG improved current and future case detection, which represents a major advance in diabetes prevention. However, refinements in staging will require further evaluation of tests and their thresholds.
Study context
- Population
- Participants aged 43–85 years from one ELSA-Brasil center850 followed up
- Participants
- 1,235 participants
- Exposure
- Type 2 diabetes stages defined by 1-h PG and preDM/IH vs normoglycemia
- Outcome
- Beta-cell compensation (ISSI-2) across stages and diabetes incidence
Methodological detailssingle-centre (one ELSA-Brasil center)
- Single-centre (one ELSA-Brasil center)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Adjusted diabetes incidence (WHO/IEC criteria) · 5.29 (0.44) years
Each group vs stage 0Relative risk (CI)
Stage 1
2.64(1.12,6.22)
Stage 2
5.94(2.83,12.44)
- ISSI-2 declined across stages
- P < 0.001
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
- Adding 1-h PG testing doubled the detection of unknown diabetes
- FPG combined with 1-h PG performed just as well as all four tests
Original publication
One-hour plasma glucose defining stages of type 2 diabetes − The ELSA-Brasil study. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 28 September 2025. doi:10.
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