Nocturnal melatonin secretion and risk of type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study
Main finding · Incident T2DResult — go to the resultHazard ratio 1.51 95% CI 1.09–2.09Authors' conclusion
Low nocturnal melatonin secretion was independently associated with a higher incidence of T2D in adults. A key limitation is the reliance on a single morning urine sample to estimate melatonin secretion. The findings support circadian regulation as a determinant of metabolic health and warrant further investigation of melatonin pathways in diabetes prevention.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged 18–75 years (52% women) without T2D and melatonin supplementation at baseline, Malmö Offspring Study, southern Sweden171 developed T2D
- Participants
- 4,491 adults
- Exposure
- Lowest vs higher quintiles of nocturnal melatonin secretion
- Outcome
- Incident T2D, identified via national and regional health registers
- Follow-up
- Median 6.5 years
Methodological detailspopulation-based
- Population-based
Main finding
Incident T2D
Hazard ratio
1.51
95% CI 1.09–2.09
Lowest quintilevs Quintiles 2 to 5
HR 1.51 (95% CI 1.09–2.09)
As reported in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Incident T2D, additionally adjusted for sleep duration and disruption | 1.54 (1.11–2.13) | |
| 0.512Hazard ratio (log scale) |
Incident T2D per 1-SD higher sex-standardized log aMT6s/Cr
- HR per 1-SD higher sex-standardized log aMT6s/Cr
- 0.84 (95% CI 0.73-0.97)
Subgroups by sex, age and BMI
- Associations were consistent across sex, age, and BMI subgroups
Original publication
Nocturnal melatonin secretion and risk of type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 13 December 2025. doi:10.
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