Integration of triglyceride-glucose index and biological aging to predict cardiovascular disease risk in cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic syndrome stages 0–3: a multiple prospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
TyG-KDM-BA integrates metabolic and aging dimensions, demonstrating superior predictive ability for CVD risk among individuals with CKM stages 0-3 compared to traditional TyG-derived indicators, and may serve as a more effective tool for the early screening and intervention.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome stages 0–3 from UK Biobank (286,864), China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) (7237) and Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital (517, external validation)3 cohorts
- Exposure
- TyG-KDM-BA quartiles and per 1-SD increase
- Outcome
- Incident CVD
Methodological detailsmultiple prospective cohorts, external validation
- Multiple prospective cohorts
- External validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Highest quartile vs Lowest quartileHazard ratio (95% CI)
UKB, fully adjusted
3.97(3.86–4.09)
CHARLS
1.92(1.63–2.25)
- HR per 1-SD increase in TyG-KDM-BA, UK Biobank (UKB) (fully adjusted)
- 1.65 (95% CI 1.64-1.67)
- HR per 1-SD increase in TyG-KDM-BA, CHARLS (fully adjusted)
- 1.25 (95% CI 1.18-1.32)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Cumulative cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence
- UKB incident CVD events (median 15.27 years)
- 57,896 (20.18%)
- CHARLS incident CVD events (median 7.84 years)
- 1,610 (22.25%)
Discrimination for CVD (time-dependent ROC) · 5-15 years
- AUC of TyG-KDM-BA in UKB, higher than conventional triglyceride-glucose (TyG)-derived indices
- 0.657-0.659
- Moderate, consistent performance in CHARLS
- Additional predictive value beyond conventional models and its individual components
CHD and stroke
- TyG-KDM-BA positively associated with CHD and stroke risk in both cohorts
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Integration of triglyceride-glucose index and biological aging to predict cardiovascular disease risk in cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic syndrome stages 0–3: a multiple prospective cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 16 June 2026. doi:10.
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