Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling
Authors' conclusion
Intervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens.
Study context
- Population
- Adult Omanis, 2020–2050
- Comparison
- Risk-factor reduction and physical activity (PA) intervention scenarios vs baseline scenario
- Outcome
- Changes in T2D prevalence, incidence and mortality
- Follow-up
- 2020–2050
Methodological detailsdeterministic population-level model, stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2D status and intervention status, parameterized with nationally representative data
- Deterministic population-level model
- Stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2D status and intervention status
- Parameterized with nationally representative data
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Reduction in T2D prevalence, cumulative incidence and related deaths vs no intervention · by 2050
- WHO Global Action Plan goals: reduction in T2D prevalence
- 32.2%
- WHO Global Action Plan goals: reduction in cumulative incidence
- 31.3%
- WHO Global Action Plan goals: reduction in related deaths
- 19.3%
- Obesity reduction: reduction in T2D prevalence
- 33.0%-51.3%
- Obesity reduction: reduction in cumulative incidence
- 31.9%-53.0%
- Obesity reduction: reduction in related deaths
- 19.5%-35.6%
- Smoking or physical inactivity (PIA) reduction: reductions in T2D prevalence, cumulative incidence and related deaths
- less than 5%
- PA: reduction in T2D prevalence
- 4.9%-14.1%
- PA: reduction in cumulative incidence
- 4.8%-13.8%
- PA: reduction in related deaths
- 3.4%-9.6%
Further findings
T2D prevalence in no-intervention scenario · 2020 to 2050
- T2D prevalence 2020
- 15.2%
- T2D prevalence 2050
- 23.8%
Original publication
Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. Published 3 August 2024. doi:10.
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