Genetic Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Fracture
Authors' conclusion
A genetic profiling of BMD-associated genetic variants is associated with the residual lifetime risk of fracture, suggesting the potential for incorporating the polygenic risk score in personalized fracture risk assessment.
Study context
- Population
- Community-dwelling individuals aged 60+ years; femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) by DXA; Polygenic risk score (PRS) from BMD-associated SNP coefficients
- Participants
- 3,515 individuals
- Exposure
- PRS > 4.24 vs population average risk
- Outcome
- Residual lifetime risk of fracture (RLRF), mortality-adjusted
Methodological detailsup to 20 years follow-up
- Up to 20 years follow-up
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Mortality-adjusted RLRF
- PRS > 4.24 (median) vs population average risk, women
- 1.2-fold
- PRS > 4.24 (median) vs population average risk, men
- 1.1-fold
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Women | Men |
|---|---|---|
| Hip fracture RLRF | 10% (95% CI 8%–12%) | ∼5% (CI 3%–7%) |
- Hip fracture residual lifetime risk of fracture (RLRF) — Risk significantly increased with high PRS, women
- 1.5-fold
- Hip fracture RLRF — Risk significantly increased with high PRS, men
- 1.3-fold
Original publication
Genetic Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Fracture. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. Published 11 May 2023. doi:10.
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