Fasting plasma glucose outperformed 1-hour plasma glucose in predicting diabetes incidence in individuals with family history of young-onset type 2 diabetes
Authors' conclusion
FPG outperformed 1-hour PG in predicting incident diabetes in people with FmH-YOD, calling for precise classification and preventive strategies.
Study context
- Population
- Workforce cohort established 1998–2003, glycemic status ascertained 2012–2014; median age 41 years, 43.7% men, 40.3% with family history of young-onset T2D40.3% 235
- Participants
- 583 participants
- Exposure
- FmH-YOD vs FmH-NONE; high vs normal 1-hour plasma glucose (PG)
- Outcome
- Incident diabetes
- Follow-up
- 12.1 (11.3-13.1) years
Methodological detailsworkforce cohort, ROC analysis
- Workforce cohort
- ROC analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Odds ratio (95% CI)P value
FmH-NONE/high 1-hour PGvs FmH-NONE/normal 1-hour PG
7.4(1.6–35.1)
P = 0.011FmH-YOD/normal 1-hour PGvs FmH-NONE/normal 1-hour PG
18(3.3–98.1)
P = 0.001FmH-YOD/high 1-hour PGvs FmH-NONE/normal 1-hour PG
28.2(5.5–145.9)
P < 0.001- FmH-NONE vs FmH-YOD · lower in FmH-YOD
- difference in C-statistics of 1-hour PG 0.14 (95% CI 0.04–0.24); P = 0.006
- Negative interaction between FmH-YOD and 1-hour PG, OR
- 0.72 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.93, p=0.013)
- C-statistic of 1-hour PG, FmH-NONE
- 0.83 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.90, p<0.001)
- C-statistic of 1-hour PG, FmH-YOD
- 0.69 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.76, p<0.001)
- C-statistic of fasting PG (FPG) (best predictor), FmH-YOD
- 0.792 (95% CI 0.730-0.853, p<0.001)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
C-statistic
FmH-NONE
0.83(95% CI 0.76–0.90)
FmH-YOD
0.69(95% CI 0.62–0.76)
- FPG best predictor in FmH-YOD, C-statistic
- 0.792 (95% CI 0.730-0.853), p<0.001
Original publication
Fasting plasma glucose outperformed 1-hour plasma glucose in predicting diabetes incidence in individuals with family history of young-onset type 2 diabetes. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. Published 22 June 2025. doi:10.
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