Diabetes complications

Cardiac autonomic neuropathy predicts renal decline in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a 15 year follow-up study

DiabetologiaPublished Prospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

CAN is an independent predictor of both accelerated eGFR decline and increased albuminuria in type 1 diabetes. The study also explored the relationship between CAN and KDIGO prognostic risk in diabetic kidney disease, demonstrating that increased severity of CAN is associated with higher KDIGO prognostic risk.

Study context

Population
Participants with T1D and eGFR >30 ml/min per 1.73 m² who underwent cardiovascular autonomic reflex testing at baseline
Participants
87 participants
Exposure
Established cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) vs early CAN vs no CAN at baseline
Outcome
Kidney function decline: change in eGFR and UACR
Follow-up
15 years
Methodological details15 year follow-up, linear mixed-effects models adjusted for potential confounders, Renal data retrieved at 4 year intervals over 15 years
  • 15 year follow-up
  • Linear mixed-effects models adjusted for potential confounders
  • Renal data retrieved at 4 year intervals over 15 years

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

eGFR decline

Established CAN

14.8

mean · SD 21.6 · ml/min per 1.73 m²

Early CAN

3.1

mean · SD 7.3 · ml/min per 1.73 m²

No CAN

3.3

mean · SD 7.4 · ml/min per 1.73 m²

Established CAN vs No CAN: P = 0.004 · Established CAN vs No CAN: P = 0.018

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Mean, mg/mmol

OutcomeEstablished CANEarly CANNo CANP value
UACR increase · 15 yearsAcross no CAN, early CAN and established CAN4 (SD 8.9)11.3 (SD 30.4)0.4 (SD 0.9)P = 0.03
UACR increase · 15 yearsP = 0.002
  • Urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) increase: adjusted: baseline CAN independently associated with greater UACR increases

Baseline KDIGO risk category and CAN severity

Higher KDIGO risk category associated with increased CAN severity (r)
r=0.38, p<0.001
Higher KDIGO risk category associated with increase in UACR vs lower risk group
P < 0.001

Original publication

Cardiac autonomic neuropathy predicts renal decline in type 1 diabetes mellitus: a 15 year follow-up study. Diabetologia. Published 29 July 2026. doi:10.1007/s00125-026-06818-y

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