Associations between prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and incident arrhythmias: a population-based cohort study and Mendelian randomization analysis
Authors' conclusion
These findings highlight the differential prognostic utility of ADA and WHO/IEC criteria for arrhythmia risk stratification: the ADA criteria offer broader sensitivity for early detection, whereas the stricter WHO/IEC criteria identify a higher-risk subgroup warranting more intensive management.
Study context
- Population
- UK Biobank participants
- Participants
- 383,995 participants
- Exposure
- Prediabetes and T2D vs normoglycemia
- Outcome
- Incident arrhythmias: AF, supraventricular tachycardia, bradyarrhythmia and ventricular arrhythmia
- Follow-up
- Median 13.0 years
Methodological detailsprospective, UK Biobank
- Prospective
- UK Biobank
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident arrhythmias
Prediabetes HRs under ADA criteria
1.12 to 1.16
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
ECG changes
- Shortened RR and prolonged QTc intervals
Mendelian randomization
- Genetic evidence supporting a potential causal role of dysglycemia in arrhythmogenesis
Original publication
Associations between prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and incident arrhythmias: a population-based cohort study and Mendelian randomization analysis. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 10 July 2026. doi:10. 1016/ j. diabres. 2026. 113408
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