Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) cohort study
Authors' conclusion
A high and sustainable level of the AIP index may contribute to the incidence of CVD. The trajectories of the AIP index can help identify older English individuals at increased risk of CVD who deserve primitive preventive and therapeutic approaches.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged 50 years and older in England, ELSA 2004–2017, with atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) data in Wave 2 and more than two AIP measurements between Wave 2 and Wave 8; AIP = log10 (TG/HDL-C)
- Participants
- 3,976 individuals
- Exposure
- AIP trajectory groups
- Low-stablen = 1,146reference
- Moderate-stablen = 2,110
- High-stablen = 720
- Outcome
- Incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD)
- Follow-up
- 12-year follow-up
Methodological detailsgroup-based trajectory model, Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for potential confounders
- Group-based trajectory model
- Cox proportional hazard models
- Adjusted for potential confounders
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident CVD
Each group vs low-stableHazard ratio (95% CI)P value
High-stable
1.33(1.02–1.74)
P = 0.033Moderate-stable
1.20(0.98–1.48)
P = 0.082Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Subgroups: age <63 years and high alcohol consumption
- Similar results for participants under 63 years old and those with high alcohol consumption
Original publication
Association of atherogenic index of plasma trajectory with the incidence of cardiovascular disease over a 12-year follow-up: findings from the ELSA cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 19 March 2025. doi:10.
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