Anticipating years lived with vision loss attributable to diabetic retinopathy in Mexico: a quantitative simulation for 2040
Authors' conclusion
Visual disability attributable to DR will continue to increase in Mexico, primarily driven by DR-related blindness.
Study context
- Population
- People living with diabetes mellitus (DM) in Mexico; Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data (1990–2021), forecasts to 2040
- Outcome
- Projected YLDs attributable to visual impairment (VI) secondary to DR
- Follow-up
- 2040
Methodological detailssecondary aggregated GBD 2021 data, ARIMA time-series forecasting, ARIMA models selected by AIC and BIC; validated by residual diagnostics, Ljung-Box tests and out-of-sample forecasting (1990-2016 training; 2017-2021 validation)
- Secondary aggregated GBD 2021 data
- ARIMA time-series forecasting
- ARIMA models selected by AIC and BIC; validated by residual diagnostics, Ljung-Box tests and out-of-sample forecasting (1990-2016 training; 2017-2021 validation)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Total YLDs attributable to DR
- Total years lived with disability (YLDs) attributable to diabetic retinopathy (DR), 1990
- 15,222
- Total YLDs attributable to DR, 2021
- 25,495
- Projected total YLDs attributable to DR, 2040
- 31,332
- Projected increase vs 2021
- 22.9%
- Blindness share of total YLDs by 2040 (main driver)
- 64.3%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
- DM prevalence 2021
- 9.36%
- Projected DM prevalence 2040
- 10.84%
Original publication
Anticipating years lived with vision loss attributable to diabetic retinopathy in Mexico: a quantitative simulation for 2040. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 16 August 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →