Alcohol Reduction and 15‐Year Cardiometabolic Changes in Glycemic, Lipid and Blood Pressure Profiles: A Target Trial Emulation Study
Authors' conclusion
Sustained alcohol reduction improved long-term FPG, blood pressure, and triglycerides.
Study context
- Population
- Japanese employees aged ≥40 years consuming ≥20 g/day ethanol at baseline, annual health examination data (2008–2023)
- Participants
- 266,699 eligible trial entries
- Comparison
- Sustained alcohol reduction to <20 g/day vs maintaining ≥20 g/day
- Interventionn = 30,280
- Controln = 229,946reference
- Outcome
- Longitudinal trajectories of FPG, SBP, DBP, TG, HDL-C and LDL-C
- Follow-up
- 15 years
Methodological detailspooled sequential target trial emulation, inverse probability weighting, per-protocol effect, weighted generalized estimating equations
- Pooled sequential target trial emulation
- Inverse probability weighting
- Per-protocol effect
- Weighted generalized estimating equations
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Between-group differences in FPG, SBP, DBP and triglycerides · Year 15
Between-group difference in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (all p ≤ 0.005)
−1.8 mg/dL
Between-group difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) (all p ≤ 0.005)
−3.4 mmHg
Between-group difference in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (all p ≤ 0.005)
−2.2 mmHg
Between-group difference in triglycerides (all p ≤ 0.005)
−20.4 mg/dL
Further findings
HDL-C and LDL-C
- HDL-C consistently lower and LDL-C modestly higher in intervention group
Sensitivity, subgroup and dose-transition analyses
- BP-lowering effects consistent across genders; findings broadly consistent across sensitivity, subgroup and dose-transition analyses
Original publication
Alcohol Reduction and 15‐Year Cardiometabolic Changes in Glycemic, Lipid and Blood Pressure Profiles: A Target Trial Emulation Study. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 9 September 2026. doi:10.
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