5‐Year simulation of diabetes‐related complications in people treated with tirzepatide or semaglutide versus insulin glargine
Authors' conclusion
With the use of the BRAVO diabetes model, tirzepatide and semaglutide exhibited potential to reduce the risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications among individuals with type 2 diabetes, compared with insulin glargine in a 5-year window. Based on the current modelling assumptions, tirzepatide (15 mg) may potentially outperform semaglutide (1 mg). While the BRAVO model offered insights, the long-term cardiovascular benefit of tirzepatide should be further validated in a prospective clinical trial.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with T2D; 1-year treatment effects on HbA1c, systolic BP, LDL and body weight from SUSTAIN-4 and SURPASS-2
- Comparison
- Tirzepatide or semaglutide vs insulin glargine
- Outcome
- Incidence of macrovascular and microvascular complications
- Follow-up
- 5 years
Methodological details5-year SURPASS-2 trial extrapolation, Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes simulation model, optimistic and conservative scenarios
- 5-year SURPASS-2 trial extrapolation
- BRAVO diabetes simulation model
- Optimistic and conservative scenarios
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Further findings
Conservative scenario · 5 years
- Treatment effects for tirzepatide and semaglutide smaller but still significantly higher than insulin glargine
Diabetes-related complication events and mortality, tirzepatide 15 mg vs insulin glargine · 5 years
- Risk reduction range, optimistic scenario
- 49% to 10%
- Reduction of benefit under conservative scenario
- 17%-33%
Original publication
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