Worldwide burden of metabolic risk‐related cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Authors' conclusion
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and projected burden of metabolic risk-related CVD, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the escalating challenges posed by these diseases and their impact on global health systems.
Study context
- Population
- Global population; metabolic risk-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) (high LDL-C, high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body mass index (BMI), kidney dysfunction), 1990–2021, data from the Global Health Data Exchange
- Outcome
- Age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of metabolic risk-related CVD and its estimated annual percentage change (EAPC)
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021; projections to 2050
Methodological detailsBayesian age-period-cohort model projections to 2050, stratified by sex, age and socio-demographic index (SDI)
- Bayesian age-period-cohort model projections to 2050
- Stratified by sex, age and SDI
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
ASDR of metabolic risk-related CVD, globally · 2021
- High SBP-related CVD age-standardized death rate (ASDR) per 100 000 (ischaemic heart disease (IHD) 56.73; Ischaemic stroke (IS) 25.57)
- 125.33
- High BMI-related CVD ASDR per 100 000 (IHD 11.71; Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) 7.21)
- 22.77
- High FPG-related CVD ASDR per 100 000 (IHD 16.27; IS 8.11)
- 26.85
- High LDL-C-related CVD ASDR per 100 000 (IHD 32.29; IS 11.38)
- 43.67
- Kidney dysfunction-related CVD ASDR per 100 000 (IHD 17.18; IS 4.24)
- 25.55
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) trends · 1990 to 2021
- EAPCs increased for high BMI-related HHD, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage and AF/flutter, and high FPG-related lower extremity peripheral arterial disease
- EAPCs for most metabolic risk-related CVD declined, varying across risk factors, sexes, age groups and SDI levels
Projections · up to 2050
- CVD deaths related to all metabolic risks projected to increase, with significant variations in ASDR trends
Original publication
Worldwide burden of metabolic risk‐related cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 24 June 2025. doi:10.
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