Trends and cyclic variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in two Italian regions over 33 years and during the COVID ‐19 pandemic
Authors' conclusion
Long-term incidence analysis showed an unexpected increase in new cases of type 1 diabetes in 2021. The incidence of type 1 diabetes now needs continuous monitoring using population registries to understand better the impact of COVID-19 on new-onset type 1 diabetes in children.
Study context
- Population
- Children and adolescents in two regions of mainland Italy, 1989–2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic
- Exposure
- Observed vs expected T1D incidence in 2021
- Outcome
- Incidence of T1D: long-term trends and incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic vs that estimated from long-term data
Methodological detailstwo diabetes registries, Poisson and segmented regression models
- Two diabetes registries
- Poisson and segmented regression models
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
T1D incidence rate in 2021
Observed 2021
26.7
CI 23.0–30.9
Expected
19.5
CI 17.6–21.4
P = 0.010
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Long-term trend in T1D incidence · 1989–2019
- Significant increasing trend per year, 1989–2003
- 3.6% (95% CI: 2.4-4.8)
- Breakpoint
- 2003
- Constant incidence until 2019
- 0.5% (95% CI: −1.3 to 2.4)
- Significant cycle in incidence over the entire study period
- 4-year
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Trends and cyclic variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in two Italian regions over 33 years and during the COVID ‐19 pandemic. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 9 March 2023. doi:10.
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