Obesity

Transition from preclinical obesity to clinical obesity among US adults: incidences and risk factors

Int J Obes (Lond)Published Cohort study

Authors' conclusion

Progression from preclinical to clinical obesity is relatively common.

Study context

Population
US adults in the All of Us dataset with no, preclinical or clinical obesity; obesity = ≥2 of body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m², elevated waist circumference, elevated waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) >0.50, or BMI ≥40 kg/m²
Participants
319,815 adults
Exposure
No obesity vs Preclinical obesity vs Clinical obesity
  • Preclinical obesityn = 92,396
Outcome
Transition from preclinical to clinical obesity (new onset of related conditions over follow-up)
Follow-up
Median 2.9 years
Methodological detailsAll of Us dataset, Cox models with multivariable adjustment
  • All of Us dataset
  • Cox models with multivariable adjustment

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Transition from preclinical to clinical obesity
GroupValueCumulative incidence at 1 yearCumulative incidence at 3 yearsCumulative incidence at 5 years
Preclinical obesity26.0%12.7%25.7%34.3%

Preclinical obesity

Value26.0%
Cumulative incidence at 1 year12.7%
Cumulative incidence at 3 years25.7%
Cumulative incidence at 5 years34.3%

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

OutcomePreclinical obesityClinical obesity
Obesity status at baseline28.9%40.0%

Risk factors for transition (adjusted Cox model)

Older age, elevated HbA1c, higher BMI, higher WHR, higher WHtR, insurance coverage and poorer self-reported overall health were strongly and independently associated with greater likelihood of transition
  • Multivariable adjustment

Original publication

Transition from preclinical obesity to clinical obesity among US adults: incidences and risk factors. Int J Obes (Lond). Published 21 August 2026. doi:10.1038/s41366-026-02199-9

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